HVAC Stocks Screener Excel: Summer 2026 Cooling Demand Dashboard

HVAC stocks screener Excel - if peak cooling season is finally pricing into the tape, you need a single sheet that ranks the sector by valuation, growth, weather sensitivity, and momentum without re-keying numbers every morning. This guide walks through a summer 2026 cooling demand dashboard built in Excel, powered by live MarketXLS formulas, and downloadable as two ready-to-use templates at the end of the post.

The HVAC universe has quietly become one of the most interesting cross-currents in the U.S. equity market. Residential replacement cycles, the heat pump retrofit tailwind, the data center liquid cooling boom, and a record run of multi-week heat domes in the Sunbelt have all collided into a sector that no longer trades like a sleepy building-products group. The screener below is the tool the desk uses to keep ten of the biggest names on one screen.

Quick reference - the 10 HVAC names on the dashboard

The summer 2026 cooling demand dashboard tracks ten public tickers across residential, commercial, distribution, and data center cooling exposure. The table below is the screener's at-a-glance view.

Three buckets emerge. Pure-play residential cooling (LII, WSO). Diversified climate platforms (CARR, TT, JCI). Data center cooling and mechanical contractors (AAON, FIX, ROK). The HVAC stocks screener Excel template separates those buckets so you can size positions across, not within, each cohort.

Why HVAC stocks deserve a dedicated screener this summer

Three structural forces are converging on the HVAC group at the same moment, and a one-page Excel screener is the cleanest way to track all three.

Force one - the 2025-2030 residential replacement wave

The U.S. residential HVAC installed base went through a record installation cycle from 2003 to 2010. Equipment life on those systems is typically 15 to 20 years. That puts the replacement bulge squarely in 2023 to 2028. Lennox and Watsco have already flagged elevated aftermarket order books, and the screener lets you watch revenue growth alongside operating margin to test whether the replacement wave is also a pricing event.

Force two - the heat pump retrofit policy tailwind

State-level and federal incentives have created a multi-year pull on heat pump installations across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Trane and Carrier are the two largest U.S.-exposed players. The composite score in the dashboard includes a Cooling Cycle Phase input so you can dial up the heat pump exposure beta when policy news flows through.

Force three - the data center liquid cooling boom

Hyperscaler capex on liquid cooling is the cleanest single signal in commercial HVAC right now. AAON and Comfort Systems USA have the most direct exposure on a percent-of-revenue basis. Both names show up in the top of the composite ranking when you turn the Cooling Cycle Phase input to 5 in the template.

If any of those three vectors moves against the consensus narrative, you want a screener that ranks the universe in seconds rather than a spreadsheet that takes ninety minutes to update. The HVAC stocks screener Excel template solves exactly that problem.

What the HVAC stocks screener Excel template tracks

The dashboard is built around a composite score with four equal-weighted components. Each component pulls live data from MarketXLS so the score recalculates whenever the workbook opens.

The Buy or Watch tag at the right edge of the Main Dashboard uses two filters. The composite score must clear the Min Composite Score input, and the beta must sit under the Beta Cap input. Both inputs live in yellow cells so you can dial sensitivity in real time.

Market analysis - reading the cooling demand cycle through Excel

Here is the educational hypothesis the dashboard is designed to test. None of this is investment advice. Use the screener as a structured way to track your own thesis, not a buy or sell signal.

Hypothesis one - data center cooling will outrun residential through 2026

Data center cooling demand is tied to AI training and inference workloads. Those workloads have shown roughly 6x growth in compute footprint over the last 24 months. The residential cycle is tied to weather and replacement timing, which is slower-moving. The Cooling Cycle Phase input in the screener lets you bias the composite score toward data center exposure (set the input to 4 or 5) or toward residential rebound (set it to 1 or 2).

Hypothesis two - distribution wins the replacement wave

When residential replacement runs hot, the cleanest economic exposure is often the distributor rather than the OEM. Watsco controls roughly one-third of U.S. independent HVAC distribution and earns a fee on every unit replaced. The screener tracks the price-to-sales ratio alongside dividend yield to give you a yield-plus-volume read on whether the distribution thesis is working.

Hypothesis three - heat pumps are a margin event, not a volume event

Heat pumps have higher average selling prices than legacy split systems, but installation costs eat into customer wallet share. The companies that win are the ones who can pass through pricing without losing volume. The dashboard tracks gross margin and operating margin via MarketXLS so you can monitor the pass-through directly.

Building the HVAC stocks screener Excel - the formulas

Every data cell in the template is a live MarketXLS function. Below are the building blocks you can reuse in your own spreadsheets. All of these have been verified against the live MarketXLS function library.

Price and valuation block

=QM_Last("CARR")              -> Latest traded price
=PERatio("CARR")              -> Trailing P/E
=ForwardPE("CARR")            -> Forward P/E
=PriceToSales("CARR")         -> Price-to-sales ratio
=PriceToBook("CARR")          -> Price-to-book ratio
=ENTERPRISEVALUETOEBITDA("CARR") -> EV/EBITDA

The screener uses Forward P/E as the valuation backbone because trailing P/E lags the cycle. When pricing pass-through accelerates on heat pumps, Forward P/E moves faster than trailing.

Profitability block

=GrossMargin("CARR")          -> Gross margin
=OperatingMargin("CARR")      -> Operating margin
=EBITDA_MARGINS("CARR")       -> EBITDA margin
=ReturnOnEquity("CARR")       -> Return on equity
=TotalDebtToEquity("CARR")    -> Debt-to-equity
=CURRENT_RATIO("CARR")        -> Current ratio

The dashboard column for EBITDA margin reads =EBITDA_MARGINS("CARR")*100 so the value displays as a percent. EBITDA margin is the single best read on heat pump pass-through. When it moves up alongside Revenue Growth, the cycle thesis is intact.

Growth and momentum block

=Revenue("CARR")                       -> Trailing twelve-month revenue
=RevenueGrowth("CARR")                 -> Revenue growth
=QuarterlyRevenueGrowthYoY("CARR")     -> Quarterly revenue growth
=QuarterlyEarningsGrowthYoY("CARR")    -> Quarterly EPS growth
=RSI("CARR")                           -> 14-day relative strength
=SimpleMovingAverage("CARR",50)        -> 50-day simple moving average
=ChangePercentYTD("CARR")              -> Year-to-date change percent

Quarterly Revenue Growth YoY is the cleaner signal during a cycle inflection because it captures the most recent quarter without being diluted by older periods.

Income and risk block

=DividendYield("CARR")            -> Dividend yield
=DividendPerShare("CARR")         -> Dividend per share
=Beta("CARR")                     -> Beta vs S&P 500
=MarketCapitalization("CARR")     -> Market cap
=FiftyTwoWeekHigh("CARR")         -> 52-week high
=FiftyTwoWeekLow("CARR")          -> 52-week low
=Sector("CARR")                   -> Sector
=Industry("CARR")                 -> Industry

The Beta column drives the Buy or Watch decision in combination with the composite score. When the Beta Cap input is 1.30, names like Comfort Systems with higher betas are tagged Watch until the score is high enough to justify the volatility.

Walking through the six sheets

The HVAC stocks screener Excel template ships with six sheets. Each sheet has a purpose, an input footprint, and a MarketXLS Functions Used reference box at the bottom so you know which formulas power the page.

Sheet 1 - How To Use

Tutorial-style explanation of every input and every output. Lists the five yellow cells on the Main Dashboard. Explains how the Cooling Cycle Phase input flows into composite scoring. Links back to https://marketxls.com and https://marketxls.com/book-demo.

Sheet 2 - Main Dashboard

Five yellow input cells. Ten-ticker screener with twelve columns. Composite score uses conditional formatting (red below 30, yellow at 60, green at 100). The Action column tags Buy or Watch. The footer pulls the highest composite name automatically via INDEX and MATCH.

Sheet 3 - Scenario Analysis

Five cooling-degree-day scenarios from a cool La Nina summer through record heat with grid stress. Each scenario maps a CDD index to estimated revenue uplift across five names. The dashboard explains why Lennox shows the highest CDD beta and Carrier shows the lowest sensitivity.

Sheet 4 - Options Strategy

Two strategy blocks. The first is a covered call ladder over the top five composite-scored names, with strike, premium percent, static yield, and annualized yield. The second is a protective collar built around the 50-day simple moving average for the three most beta-sensitive names.

Sheet 5 - Portfolio Allocation

Sizes positions across the Buy list using composite score as the weighting key. Applies the Max Position Size cap. Calculates dollar allocation, share count, and projected annual dividend per name. Totals roll up to portfolio cash remaining and estimated annual dividend income.

Sheet 6 - Correlation Matrix

90-day return correlation across all ten names. Color-coded scale so high correlation pairs glow red. The insights below the matrix call out the data center pair (AAON, FIX), the housing pair (BLDR, BLD), and the cleanest diversifier (LII vs ROK).

A concrete worked example

Imagine you set the inputs to a portfolio size of $100,000, max position of 10 percent, minimum composite score of 60, beta cap of 1.30, and Cooling Cycle Phase of 4 (an above-normal heat scenario). With those inputs, the screener typically tags six to seven names as Buy. The Portfolio Allocation sheet then sizes positions to the composite score, caps every name at $10,000, and tells you how much cash is left over and how much dividend income to expect.

If a heat dome arrives and you raise the Cooling Cycle Phase to 5, AAON and Comfort Systems pick up more weight inside the composite. If a cool La Nina pattern locks in and you drop the input to 2, residential-heavy LII falls in the rankings. The screener is built to react to your thesis, not lock you into a static ranking.

The Buy List dynamics - what to watch by name

The screener is a tool, not a recommendation. The names below are tracked because they are the largest U.S.-listed pure-plays and platforms with HVAC exposure. The discussion that follows is educational analysis of how each name responds to the cooling cycle.

Carrier Global (CARR)

The most diversified portfolio in the group after the Viessmann acquisition. Revenue is split across residential, commercial, refrigeration, and aftermarket. Beta of 0.95 keeps it on the Buy list even in moderate cycles. The Main Dashboard treats Carrier as the cycle-neutral core position.

Trane Technologies (TT)

The cleanest heat pump retrofit exposure. Commercial business runs a strong backlog, and the residential heat pump book has been the fastest-growing line for six straight quarters. EBITDA margin around 13 percent is the highest in the diversified peer group.

Lennox International (LII)

The residential pure-play. When the Cooling Cycle Phase input is 4 or 5, Lennox sits at the top of the composite score because the cooling-cycle exposure component is biased toward residential. Operating margin near 19 percent is the screener's high water mark.

Johnson Controls (JCI)

The building automation overlay. JCI revenue is closer to commercial buildings and institutional retrofit than residential. The composite tends to put JCI in the middle of the pack unless the Cooling Cycle Phase is low.

Watsco (WSO)

The HVAC distribution play. Watsco's 2.85 percent dividend yield is the second highest on the screener. The screener uses dividend yield as a tiebreaker in the Portfolio Allocation sheet when two names have similar composite scores.

Comfort Systems USA (FIX)

The data center mechanical contractor. FIX has the highest cooling-cycle exposure inside the dashboard. When the Cooling Cycle Phase input is 5, FIX is almost always the highest-scored name.

AAON Inc (AAON)

Specialty HVAC with concentrated data center demand. EBITDA margin north of 28 percent leads the screener. Beta of 1.32 keeps AAON on the Watch list when the Beta Cap input is tighter.

Builders FirstSource (BLDR) and TopBuild (BLD)

The housing-cycle adjacency. Both names move with new residential construction. The correlation matrix flags 0.85 correlation between them, which is why the Portfolio Allocation sheet treats them as a paired exposure.

Rockwell Automation (ROK)

The industrial automation tie-in. Rockwell's data center exposure runs through the industrial cooling and power-control overlay, which is a different exposure profile from FIX or AAON. The correlation matrix uses ROK as the diversification anchor on the industrial side.

Download the templates

Download the templates:

• - Pre-filled with current snapshot data for the summer 2026 cycle
• - Live-updating formulas that recalculate every time you open the file

Both files include the same six sheets and the same MarketXLS Functions Used boxes. The Sample file shows what every cell looks like with real data baked in. The Template file shows every cell as a live formula. To use the live version you need a MarketXLS subscription with QuoteMedia entitlements active.

How to use the dashboard in practice

The most common workflow is a weekly refresh on Sunday evening before the U.S. market opens on Monday.

1. Open the Template file.
2. Wait for the formulas to refresh. If QM_ functions return #N/A, run the authenticate_quotemedia tool from the MarketXLS Admin panel and reopen the workbook.
3. Set the five yellow cells on the Main Dashboard to your current thesis.
4. Read the composite score and the Buy or Watch column.
5. Cross-reference the Correlation Matrix to avoid concentrated paired exposure.
6. Use the Portfolio Allocation sheet to size positions.

You can also pivot the dashboard for a single-name deep dive. Replace one of the ten tickers in column A with a name not on the list (for example FAST or AOS), and the entire row will refresh because every formula references the cell in column A as a ticker.

Frequently asked questions

What is an HVAC stocks screener Excel template?

An HVAC stocks screener Excel template is a spreadsheet that ranks publicly traded HVAC stocks across valuation, profitability, growth, momentum, and weather sensitivity, with the data pulled live into Excel using MarketXLS formulas. The summer 2026 version focuses on the cooling demand cycle and tracks residential, commercial, and data center exposure on one page.

Which HVAC stocks are included in the dashboard?

The dashboard tracks Carrier (CARR), Trane Technologies (TT), Lennox International (LII), Johnson Controls (JCI), Watsco (WSO), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), AAON Inc (AAON), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), TopBuild (BLD), and Rockwell Automation (ROK). You can replace any ticker by overwriting column A on the Main Dashboard.

How does the composite score work?

The composite score combines four equally weighted components - valuation (Forward P/E), growth (revenue growth), cooling cycle exposure (a user input from 1 to 5), and momentum (RSI). The score ranges from 0 to 100 and uses conditional formatting so green names rank highest. The Buy or Watch label adds a beta filter on top of the composite.

What is the Cooling Cycle Phase input?

The Cooling Cycle Phase is a 1 to 5 scale that biases the composite score toward weather sensitivity. Set it to 1 for a cool La Nina pattern, 3 for a normal summer, and 5 for a record heat dome. Higher values give names like AAON, Lennox, and Comfort Systems a stronger composite boost.

Do I need MarketXLS to use the template?

The Sample file works in any version of Excel. The Template file requires a MarketXLS subscription with QuoteMedia entitlements so that the QM_ functions return live data. You can explore MarketXLS at https://marketxls.com or schedule a walk-through at https://marketxls.com/book-demo.

Is this investment advice?

No. The HVAC stocks screener Excel is a research tool, not a recommendation. The composite score is a way to encode your thesis, not a buy or sell signal. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

The bottom line

The HVAC stocks screener Excel built around the summer 2026 cooling demand cycle gives you a single page that ranks ten of the most relevant U.S.-listed cooling-exposed names by valuation, growth, weather sensitivity, and momentum. Live MarketXLS formulas refresh the data every time you open the file. Yellow input cells let you stress-test heat scenarios, dial up data center exposure, or tighten the beta cap without re-keying numbers.

If you want to take this further, MarketXLS supports the full chain of cooling-cycle research in one Excel session - live prices, fundamentals, options chains, historical correlation, and portfolio sizing. Explore the platform at https://marketxls.com or book a working session at https://marketxls.com/book-demo to see how the screener fits into a broader sector research workflow.